The heuristic vulnerability model: fragility curves for masonry buildings

Abstract In the framework of seismic risk analyses at large scale, among available methods for vulnerability assessment empirical and expert elicitation based ones still represent one most widely used options. fact, despite some drawbacks, they benefit a direct correlation to actual behaviour buildings are easy handle also on huge stocks buildings. Within this context, paper illustrates macroseismic model unreinforced masonry existing that starts from original proposal Lagomarsino Giovinazzi (Bull Earthquake Eng 4(4):445–463, 2006) has further developed in recent years. The method may be classified as heuristic, sense that: (a) it is expertise implicit European Macroseismic Scale (EMS98), with fuzzy assumptions binomial damage distribution; (b) calibrated observed Italy, database Da.D.O. by Italian Department Civil Protection (DPC). This approach guarantees fairly well fitting but, same time, ensures physically consistent results both low high values intensity (for which data incomplete or lacking). Moreover, provides coherent distribution between different levels. valuable allowed significant improvements than its version. been recently applied context ReLUIS project, funded DPC support development Risk Maps. To aim, deriving fragility curves. step requires introduce law Intensity (adopted calibration wide set real data) Peak Ground Acceleration (at present, instrumental measures); conversion increases potential method. As presented paper, first applications have produced plausible national terms scenarios total (economic loss, consequences people).